Europe is a geopolitical Nationalist earthquake - and we're only starting to feel the shocks:
Across the continent Nationalism is on the rise: France, Russia, Scotland & UK, Greece, Spain and even Germany. The reasons are mixed but most of the anger has to do with the fallout from the 2007 financial crisis - Western mainstream parties have been left weakened and distracted, and far-right parties have filled the void.
The most immediate crisis in Europe is Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia is now a fascist country - invading its neighbours under the pretext that they are Russian speakers is something Hitler pulled off numerous times. And now NATO is now delivering arms to Ukraine to fight "pro-Russian Separatists". Make no mistake about the consequences of the rise of a far-right Russia and a weakened Europe - this is war in Europe.
Scotland will vote this week on whether to be independent from the UK. Judging by polls - the vote is on a knife-edge. As the Guardian newspaper has stated, whatever peoples personal reasons, this is about the rise of a Nationalist party. If Scotland votes to leave the UK -it will cripple one of the world's major economic and military powers with a lasting global impact. Even if the Scots vote to stay, the UK is internally distracted and divided.
Then there's France. Everyone seems to be ignoring the rise of a fascist party at the heart of Europe. In the latest poll, Le Pen, leader of the National Front, could become President. Firstly, she wants to take France out of the Euro - which would create economic chaos. But a fascist government at the heart of Europe would threaten the entire European project as trade, politics, immigration and much more would be sanctioned by the rest of the continent. Again, even if Le Pen does not take the Presidency in 2017, France will be divided, distracted and its politics will lurch to the far-right.
Similar situations are being played out in Greece - where Fascists have already been voted into government; Catalonia wants to hold its own referendum on Independence from Spain later this year; the UK may hold a referendum on whether it stays in the EU, and the majority of Europeans want out of the Euro project.
What does this mean for Europe and the rest of the world?
- Europe is one of the largest and most important economic regions in the world. The politicians - including Germany's President Merkel - seem to have taken none of the necessary steps to insure the Euro's survival in the few years of breathing space given by European Central Banker, Mario Draghi. Germany's productivity has slowed and the rest of the EU is still in recession. A shock, such as a spike in oil could tip it over the edge into deeper recession/depression which will only help far-right parties like Le Pen who will then kill off the Euro and maybe the entire project. This would have a massive global impact on a world economy still struggling to find stable growth, with some economists comparing such an event to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
This is all exactly what Putin wants. As he invades Ukraine under the pretext that he is protecting Russian speakers from fascists, Europe is too weak and divided to stop him. Putin is calling NATO's and the EU's bluff - how will they respond? Which brings me to my main point:
- Europe has dragged the world into two major world wars (and many more before that). Peace in Europe has been a cornerstone to global stability in the last 50 years. That cornerstone is now crumbling.
Nationalism across Europe has wrecked death and destruction across the world over the last 100 years. And now it's back.
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a few links:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2748054/Poll-predicts-National-Front-s-Marine-Le-Pen-beat-Hollande-French-presidential-election.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/12/guardian-view-scottish-independence
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29198497
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